Our US Inflation Heatmap Flashes Red, Supporting Hawkish Fed Pivot

Jun 22, 2026

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Main Takeaways

Research Pieces:

Financial Markets Last Week:

Energy: The eventual signing of the US-Iran MoU pushed Brent as low as $76, before Israeli strikes in Lebanon lifted it back to above $80.
Iran: The Hormuz Strait was closed on Saturday, suggesting that the bounce in oil prices could gather steam this week.
Bonds: Yieldsrose at the front-end, despite falling energy prices, as central banks projected hawkish signals, led by the Fed and ECB.
Equities: Rallied globally on the drop in Oil and geopolitical risk, even as yields rose, except in the UK where the FTSE 100 fell -1%.
FX: The US Dollar climbed a percent to a fresh 13-month high, driven by rising US real yields as markets awake to the macro reality in the US.
Gold: Fell a percent on the week, due to higher yields and a stronger Dollar.

Central Bank Watching:

Fed: Was unambiguously hawkish, despite Trump-appointee Warsh taking the helm.

BoE: Is attempting to "see through" the supply shock given recent drop in Oil, but is primed to hike rates if necessary.
BoJ: Hiked rates 25bps to 1% while signalling a further increase is likely this year.
SNB: Relayed a semblence of comfort in not altering its policy stance, either through rates or FX.